I'm using IPSec now without any problems. OpenVPN is blocked.
China has the power to be more selective about what it blocks. For example, Wikipedia is not blocked here (yet). But trying to access an article within Wikipedia on Tiananmen results in a dropped connection. Why China completely blocks entire blocks of ip addresses (like YouTube, Blogger, Wordpress) is not clear to me. There are a number of easy heuristics you could use to block most of what you don't want.
It is ironic to me that a government that preaches a belief in rationality (eg I received a text message last week urging citizens to believe in science and not the end of the world reports) would use censorship instead of rational debate/discussion to counter viewpoints it doesn't agree with.
Are just the standard ports blocked? Or are they doing some type of traffic analysis to differentiate openvpn traffic over any port, be it tcp or udp (as openvpn can of course be configured for any port over tcp or udp)?
I would assume, based on the various anecdotal reports I've read, that IPSec tunnels are blocked under this new program, along with PPTP and L2TP.
They're using machine learning packet classifiers to identify the traffic running over tcp and udp, as well.