Is it about jobs/tasks, or cognitive capabilities? The majority of the AI-valley seems to focus on the former, TFA focuses on the latter.
Can it do tasks, or jobs? Jobs are bundles of tasks. AI might be able to do 90% of tasks for a given job, but not the whole job.
If tasks, what counts as a task: Is it only specific things with clear success criteria? That's easier.
Is scaffolding allowed: Does it need to be able to do the tasks/jobs without scaffolding and human-written few-shot prompts?
Today's tasks/jobs only, or does it include future ones too? As tasks and jobs get automated, jobs evolve and get re-defined. So, being able to do the future jobs too is much harder.
Remote only, or in-person too: In-person too is a much higher bar.
What threshold of tasks/jobs: "most" is apparently typically understood to mean 80-95% (Mira Ariel). Automating 80% of tasks is different to 90% and 95% and 99%. diminishing returns. And how are the tasks counted - by frequency, by dollar-weighted, by unique count of tasks?
Only economically valuable tasks/jobs, or does it include anything a human can do?
A high-order bit on many people's AGI timelines is which definition of AGI they're using, so clarifying the definition is nice.
Is it about jobs/tasks, or cognitive capabilities? The majority of the AI-valley seems to focus on the former, TFA focuses on the latter.
Can it do tasks, or jobs? Jobs are bundles of tasks. AI might be able to do 90% of tasks for a given job, but not the whole job.
If tasks, what counts as a task: Is it only specific things with clear success criteria? That's easier.
Is scaffolding allowed: Does it need to be able to do the tasks/jobs without scaffolding and human-written few-shot prompts?
Today's tasks/jobs only, or does it include future ones too? As tasks and jobs get automated, jobs evolve and get re-defined. So, being able to do the future jobs too is much harder.
Remote only, or in-person too: In-person too is a much higher bar.
What threshold of tasks/jobs: "most" is apparently typically understood to mean 80-95% (Mira Ariel). Automating 80% of tasks is different to 90% and 95% and 99%. diminishing returns. And how are the tasks counted - by frequency, by dollar-weighted, by unique count of tasks?
Only economically valuable tasks/jobs, or does it include anything a human can do?
A high-order bit on many people's AGI timelines is which definition of AGI they're using, so clarifying the definition is nice.