I suppose that Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, Myanmar, Sudan, Somalia, Pakistan/India/China, Georgia, Bosnia/Herzegovina, and so on just never happened?
Not doubting that war is on the horizon, but the USA is addicted to war, and many other nations had their own issues independently of the USA.
> The "Long Peace" is a term for the unprecedented historical period of relative global stability following the end of World War II in 1945 to the present day
This is an outrageously euro/america-centric world view. A war isn't "minor" if you're murdered in it. The Second Congo War alone killed nearly 5 million, the Soviet Afghan War killed nearly 3 million, Bangladesh nearly 3 million, Ethiopia/Eritrea 2 million, who knows how many in Ukraine and Gaza. While no one war approaches the loss of life in WW2, these are far from minor skirmishes.
I struggle to consider Syria, Myanmar, Somalia, or Sudan minor conflicts. Likewise, what is the measure of stability here considering the rate of civil wars and country creation?
As the other reply said, and backed it up with references, while there have been plenty of smaller regional conflicts as you point out, the world in general has enjoyed an extraordinary degree of peacefulness.
There is no doubt, given the status quo. ie Trump has no medical issues.
There will be a national emergency declared unsurprisingly to push back the election. Some states will perform some form of election to the best of their ability. Then SCOTUS declares that the unitary executive has the power to do this and we're in for a rough ride.
That being said, this UNESCO departure is a nothingburger that has more to do with Israel solidarity than anything else.
I suspect he will make a major war, and invoke military rule or whatever, before the next election, in order to continue in power.