On the short term that sounds about right. Still I would guess that if the EU and US relations would go from more of a culture friendship to a strict transactional nature that would have big consequences. The EU would try to be more self sufficient and for one import less from the US. The EU would probably try to find closer relations to countries with semi big military, totally guessing here India, South Korea, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Turkey. NATO would of course start to look more shaky and the idea of an EU army more of a possibility. Maybe even a new NATO would form without the US?
I could see the EU being more self sufficient. But at the same time it will be difficult given that they have a serious population decline. You need that population to grow the GDP. Furthermore some essential industries seem to be completely abandoned by the EU. (Looking at competitors to the FAANG companies).
>The EU would probably try to find closer relations to countries with semi big military, totally guessing here India, South Korea, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Turkey.
This is assuming they have the capability to project forces anywhere in the world which given these countries you listed, feels unlikely either now or in the distant future.
