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One counter-example to your second point is Don't Look Up

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/dont_look_up_2021

55% Tomatometer, 78% audience score

My take with this movie is that the opposite of your #2 happened. Lots of regular folks who are concerned with global warming rated the movie highly, because they care about the political message it sends. Critics saw it as a pretty mediocre movie even though the message might be good.

I'm not saying you're wrong, but I do think it can go both ways.

EDIT: I looked again, and I realized the "Critic Consensus" and "Audience Says" sections on that page actually match my theory. For whatever that's worth.

Critic Consensus: Don't Look Up aims too high for its scattershot barbs to consistently land, but Adam McKay's star-studded satire hits its target of collective denial square on.

Audience Says: Although it can be heavy-handed with its messaging, Don't Look Up tackles important subjects with humor and heart.





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