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A bigger problem though is the feedback loop between the model and policy makers in this context.

For instance, the model predicts 2023 GDP to decrease so we take all out measures to cause this to not happen.

Was the model wrong? How would you know?

In this context, the model would need to predict the actions by the Fed but the Fed would be the ones using the model.

So you would also have to predict the Feds reaction to the prediction the model made of the Fed's reaction to the model..on and on.



The best alternative I can think of is the model explains why 2023 GDP decrease is better in the long run.

Such a model can't exist without an solid understanding of human psychology, and that involves trust. Likely, the machine would need to understand this, and spend the first few months/years proving its worth, such as by making those in control of it rich. To make it work, the humans have to place their trust in the machine. Honestly, it's probably better to invent the machine then feed its commands to a real person that people can place their trust into, not unlike Westworld Season 3.




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