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The key in every speculative bubble is to remember that you must exit, or you'll be the one holding the bag.

(I hate scammers like this guy, but the comparison is valid, I think)



The key to making money in the stock market it so buy high sell low. Or the other way around. I never remember which it is.


How do I know if I'm in a speculative bubble?


You are for sure, in the sense that life is a speculative bubble that'll eventually end in the heat death of the universe, and your exit is foreordained.

If you're looking for more actionable advice, it may be worth comparing the expected lifetime of the speculative bubble to your lifetime. Certain speculative bubbles - like the stock market, or fiat currency, or the U.S.A, or life on earth - have a fairly high chance of outliving you. Other speculative bubbles - like Solana, or $GME, or Clover Health - will probably be gone in a year or two. In between are stuff like more established cryptocurrencies (BTC and ETH), tech stocks, Silicon Valley real estate, etc. which might last for a few decades, long enough to raise children, but will likely be gone before your death.

As a couple general rules, the faster they rise, the harder they fall, and the longer something has been around, the longer it is likely to continue to be around. Huge profits can be made identifying the new invention that sticks around for decades, or cashing out of the institution that's about to collapse, though.


Thank you for the sober and measured response.

I must say though, that US fiat has cratered since being pulled off the gold standard around 1971, and the purchasing power is always declining.

It seems like some cryptos fill a similar niche gold and silver fills in the physical world. While any individual crypto could be a pump-and-dump , the basket of all cryptos represent a concept that I'm confident enough in to wager will retain utility for our foreseeable lifetimes.


You don't, at least not for sure. That's the reason why they exist in the first place, otherwise they couldn't really gain speed.




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