Hacker Newsnew | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submitlogin

The gambler's fallacy is applying past events that have already happened to randomized trials in the future.

This is not the same because outlier movement of macro demographics and financial policy does have an impact on the future. If the stock market were random on a macro scale it would average zero movement.



I agree with all of that and I still think expecting an unusual low after an unusual high is indicative of the gambler's fallacy.




Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: