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Read Daniel Kahneman: Thinking, Fast and Slow. A relevant excerpt can be found at https://acquirersmultiple.com/2018/04/daniel-kahneman-the-il...

> Nevertheless, the evidence from more than fifty years of research is conclusive: for a large majority of fund managers, the selection of stocks is more like rolling dice

> the year-to-year correlation between the outcomes of mutual funds is very small, barely higher than zero. The successful funds in any given year are mostly lucky; they have a good roll of the dice.



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