That's great and all but did you also consider your impact on others? Also, I sincerely doubt you were able to get an accurate picture of risk in February.
That is an interesting limitation of micromorts in this context—-they’re kind of statistically focused on the individual.
I wonder if there’s some similar measure where we could basically treat everyone as slightly radioactive. Entering an enclosed space would reduce the maximum separation of everyone and increase the minimum possible exposure (and by consequence, everyone’s chance of death).
Since we’d then have a useful quantity to measure and track, we could then do accounting with our risk of death by COVID-19 (i.e. “I’m not going to the store today because I’m over my exposure limit for the week”)
Oh, I wasn't really thinking about my impact on others until I was considering whether to go to MODEX early in March. But early estimates of SARS-2 lethality from February have stood up pretty well even if we didn't understand many of the mechanisms at the time. For instance at the time I was very worried about Covid-19's effect on the brain and had no idea that clotting could be an issue.
There are ways to figure that out based on average infection chains and risk, and I've done this for flu. But you couldn't do that now with available information. The value you'd get is highly dependent on the R_naught (which you can get a reasonable guess of right now) and the percentage of the population which ultimately gets infected. (Which is a much more uncertain value.)
