It actually has been studied and it looks like, in terms of absolute bulk numbers, that at least in developed countries like the US lockdown decreases deaths overall. Here's an Ars article from last week with a summary and some links for some further reading if you're interested [1]. Basically though while suicides go up, a lot of other causes of death plummet. Auto accidents for example a big source of yearly mortality that drop a ton if, well, people aren't getting in their vehicles so much. Air pollution has plummeted [2] as well, another significant source of deaths. People are bored at home and thus work out more, tend to eat better, etc.
Of course as that article and any other responsible ones should point out, the benefits and harms fall quite unevenly, and there is a lot of real misery too. And at some point the economic harm from ongoing lock down would certainly affect more and more people regardless of previous income. But even so as far as society overall goes it at worst looks like a wash right now, and seems more likely to lean towards fewer deaths. So excess vs previous years does look like a valid number to use as some level of gut check given the ongoing poor state of testing.
Of course as that article and any other responsible ones should point out, the benefits and harms fall quite unevenly, and there is a lot of real misery too. And at some point the economic harm from ongoing lock down would certainly affect more and more people regardless of previous income. But even so as far as society overall goes it at worst looks like a wash right now, and seems more likely to lean towards fewer deaths. So excess vs previous years does look like a valid number to use as some level of gut check given the ongoing poor state of testing.
----
1: https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/recessions-dont-lead...
2: https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-offers-a-clear-view...