The contract posted on the LVCVA website projects an
operating capacity of 4,400 passengers per hour using
“autonomous electric vehicles at high speeds,” which
might include a Tesla Model X or Model 3, or another
Tesla chassis converted into a 16-passenger shuttle.
There are two tunnels involved, so to manage to get 2,200 passengers through in one direction per hour, you're going to have to get 36 passengers out of whatever vehicles and 36 passengers into those same vehicles every minute.
The only way this can work with Model 3s or similar will require a loading/unloading experience similar to the Test Track ride at Epcot in Disney World, including the line and the numerous staff helpers to make sure you are buckled in.
Combine that with also needing to move those people down to the station and back up to their destination, and the likelihood that any of the three stations are in a location you already are or want to be, I'm not sure how useful this is going to be.
Put another way: if you assume 16-passenger shuttles, you have to have 26 second headways between cars in order to meet capacity.
If you don't split the track to allow unloading, you have 26 seconds to disembark 16 passengers, embark 16 more passengers, and then clear the platform in enough time to allow sufficient safety margin for the car immediately behind you. Station dwell times (essentially the time from train is fully stopped to time it starts accelerating, and therefore not including the last bit) are upwards of 30 seconds and much likelier to be close to a minute, which can't be done in sufficient time. Especially because full capacity cars generally require more time at stations, and I have to imagine that modified Teslas that can fit 16 people aren't going to be quick to navigate.
If you have multiple platforms at each station to accomodate the long station dwell time, maybe it could be done, but I suspect that it'd blow out their construction budget because of the extra space needed.
If they have to have multiple platforms at each station anyways, it might make sense to essentially have three lines - A<->B, B<->C and A<->C, instead of A<->B<->C - and only run direct. At least in that situation everyone would be getting off at each stop, which could simplify some things - and it naturally splits passengers into two platforms.
That sort of routing is also significantly improved by having smaller, independent vehicles (well, once the number of stops goes up) - sort of like the Personal Rapid Transit setup at WVU. [0]
> There are two tunnels involved, so to manage to get 2,200 passengers through in one direction per hour, you're going to have to get 36 passengers out of whatever vehicles and 36 passengers into those same vehicles every minute.
I have a quibble with this. The cars will have to be loaded at that rate, but they will not have to unload and load the same car in that time frame. Also, if the platform can fit multiple vehicles at a time, it gives them significantly longer to unload/load. Picture like a gondola or high speed chairlift at a ski hill - you unload on one side of the end loop, load on the other, and you're unloading/loading multiple cars at a time.
And high speed chairlift capacities easily reach thousands of passengers per hour
For comparison, the Wenhu Line [1], a generic medium-capacity rapid transit, transports 7500 passengers per hour. That's actual numbers, not peak-wishful-thinking-16-passenger-modified-Tesla-body-shuttle-times-Musk-factor numbers.
Let’s say there are 10 vehicles being loaded at a time. 16 passengers each is 160 passengers per cycle. That means vehicles can wait 6 minutes for loading on average. (Some can be slower because some will be faster)
Is that crazy? It doesn’t seem crazy to me. Busses don’t wait 6 minutes at a stop.
BART does 1-2 minute transfers.
Your idea that it would need attendants seems to be based on the assumption that cars must depart synchronously (because one slow party can hold up the entire system). But you’re missing the whole point of the Loop design: many on-ramps and cars can join into the express tunnel asynchronously.
The only way this can work with Model 3s or similar will require a loading/unloading experience similar to the Test Track ride at Epcot in Disney World, including the line and the numerous staff helpers to make sure you are buckled in.
Combine that with also needing to move those people down to the station and back up to their destination, and the likelihood that any of the three stations are in a location you already are or want to be, I'm not sure how useful this is going to be.