The Real Clear Politics polling aggregator showed nearly a 10 point jump for Hillary Clinton after "grab em by the pussy" came out. That lead then eroded back to the mean over the course of the month.
That's what I mean by swingy. Nothing in 2008 or 2012 shifted the polls like that. The polls in those elections stayed within a 2 point band the whole way. That level of volatility was clear in the polls well in advance of the election.
(And, 15% of the electorate was effectively undecided with 2 weeks to go, which is much higher than it was in 2008 or 2012).
Such swings are also what Taleb and the author of this article are criticizing Nate Silver for.
That's what I mean by swingy. Nothing in 2008 or 2012 shifted the polls like that. The polls in those elections stayed within a 2 point band the whole way. That level of volatility was clear in the polls well in advance of the election.
(And, 15% of the electorate was effectively undecided with 2 weeks to go, which is much higher than it was in 2008 or 2012).
Such swings are also what Taleb and the author of this article are criticizing Nate Silver for.