Our options aren’t “high confidence converging predictions, or 538”.
The options in the current era for understanding of the electorate’s mood are “overly confident individual polls, poorly analyzed with completely inadequate models”, vs “538-style epistemically humble models accompanied by discussions of their confidence, which can be scored in aggregate after each election”.
> The options in the current era for understanding of the electorate’s mood are “overly confident individual polls, poorly analyzed with completely inadequate models”, vs “538-style epistemically humble models accompanied by discussions of their confidence, which can be scored in aggregate after each election”.
Also, “politically motivated actors selling narratives that reinforce their preferred outcome largely without data or with cherry-picked data.” Don't forget that option
Our options aren’t “high confidence converging predictions, or 538”.
The options in the current era for understanding of the electorate’s mood are “overly confident individual polls, poorly analyzed with completely inadequate models”, vs “538-style epistemically humble models accompanied by discussions of their confidence, which can be scored in aggregate after each election”.
I’ll take 538 any day.