Hacker Newsnew | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submitlogin

This is my bear case for Google. Google offers the least precise targeting compared to Facebook and Amazon.

Facebook knows more about its users because users tell it about themselves and Amazon knows more about purchasing habits of its users because of thier purchase and search history.

If I’m searching for something with the intention on buying it, I am going to go to the specific site - like Priceline, hotels.com, Zillow, etc.

Besides, ad blockers don’t work with Facebook or Amazon embedded ads.



Google has a lot more data than Facebook and Amazon combined. The targeting is not just based on your current search query. It forms a model of your behavior using your entire search history and browsing history which contains significantly more personal details about you and isn't limited to what you're willing to share in the public eye of Facebook. They also track your browsing history through every site you visit and Android app you use that serves Google ads (possibly more ecommerce than Amazon globally). They also track your location and travel patterns with Google maps and Android. All of the videos that you watch on Youtube (2nd most visited website in the world, above Facebook) tell a lot about you too. At one point I think data from your emails in Gmail was used but they stopped doing that.


True, but it seems Google has trouble refining all the raw data it mines. My go-to for passive entertainment is Youtube, and finding something new I like on that platform is like pulling teeth. I don't think anyone important at Alphabet really realizes how bad their overfitting problem is. A major reason why I sold off my investment in them this spring.


All true, but as a potential advertiser you don't really get to use all that targeting when placing ads. Although to be fair that's mostly based on my experience with AdWords.

On Facebook I can advertise to people in a well-defined geographical area, who are interested in a scarily well-defined set of things.

On Google it's more of a just-in-time approach; catching people who are searching for something in a certain place etc.

My business doesn't lend itself to Amazon ads, but I can totally see how it'd generate an ROI far exceeding Google or Facebook for product businesses that sell on Amazon.


> On Google it's more of a just-in-time approach; catching people who are searching for something in a certain place etc.

Adwords location targeting options have been around some time with 3 targeting options for location: http://prntscr.com/kq9coa

And my advice when using this - Adwords defaults to "People in, or who show interest in, your targeted locations" but I would recommend "People in your targeted locations" as the first seems to be a very loose definition by Google and in my experience brings in dud traffic.

Location settings are one of the common set-up mistakes when I see client historic accounts. And there's some good tricks with combining these settings for business that need physical proximity that can make them very effective and flexible.


>as a potential advertiser you don't really get to use all that targeting when placing ads.

you don't need to. since google is interested in providing you cheap relevant clicks, it will deliver them to you without exposing all the targetings. all the data available wil be utilized in choosing the right audience anyway.


This type of "trust us, we know what we're doing" targeting is typically less cost effective for advertisers. The fact it works at all is a technical achievement to be sure, but as far as Google goes I can vouch for the OP.


Well, if you are doing direct response advertising, you can mark (with utm source) and measure any kind of performance metric (CPA, average purchase price, whatever you can come up with), and if their clicks are not cost effective, you can stop buying them.

And if you do branding... branding is hard to measure anyway.

Note -- I'm not affiliated with google in any way, I just think their offering makes a lot of sense.


It depends what sort of business you're running.

If you're selling a product that's available nationally and appeals to a reasonably big demographic, you might not care much about targeting.

But if your business only supplies weddings in New York, then impressions/clicks by people who aren't planning a wedding in New York are largely worthless.


But the initial intent still has to be there. If I sell shampoo noone's gonna see my shampoo PPC ad just because they email a friend to say they've got dry hair. They have to search for a shampoo-related keyword I'm targeting.


And then once I buy shampoo,Amazon can make a deal with the Shampoo manufacturer to send a branded Amazon Dash button for repeat purchases.

If they have an Alexa device, Amazon can get shampoo manufacturers to pay to be the default choice when someone says “Alexa, order more shampoo.”


Not everyone wants to sell their soul. I'd pay extra to not get any of that.


In the aggregate, random posters on HN don’t matter. Enough of the world doesn’t feel that way to make Amazon a very successful company...


On Google, you certainly target by geography.

https://support.google.com/google-ads/answer/1722043?hl=en

Disclosure: I work for Google in Ads Developer Relations


You can definitely do the same with Google, but yes more targeting is available as you spend more. Companies spending 8 figures with DBM/AdX get direct access to the bid stream to do whatever targeting they want.


Don't forget that Facebook also knows your browsing habits thanks to Like buttons, retargeting pixels and Facebook Connect integrations all over the web.


Absolutely not the case. The Google machine includes:

Google Analytics, Adwords/Adsense, Doubleclick network, Android and store, Chrome Browser, Chrome OS, Maps/Streetview, Gmail, G-Suite, Youtube, Google Play, Google Fiber, Google Fi, Public DNS, all the various websites with 1st party cookies, connections to Salesforce CRM, and the recently announced Mastercard purchase data.

Facebook and Amazon are nowhere close this level of exposure from hardware devices to internet protocols to the biggest websites around, and anyone with experience in adtech will tell you the same thing. Also adblockers can trivially block any network request or DOM component on a page, including Facebook and Amazon ads.


According to the privacy page for Public DNS, it sounds like that data is not used for ads

https://developers.google.com/speed/public-dns/privacy

>We don't correlate or combine information from our temporary or permanent logs with any personal information that you have provided Google for other services.


It doesnt need to be used specifically for ads, it's still aggregated data that helps monitor network traffic.


For now, if they ever get to the point where it's used in the default DNS in most home modems and consumer devices then I'd expect that to change.

Edit - s/root/default


I think you mean default DNS resolver, not root DNS. The DNS root servers are something completely different.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Root_name_server


They still get aggregate data that can be valuable. All the site visits that don't go through google search will still trigger a DNS lookup. Including geolocation.


All of that data is still just based on Google trying to “infer” interests which is not as accurate as people telling them about themselves. For instance, Facebook knows your relationship status as soon as it changes because most people tell them. Facebook knows where people like to eat because people check in. They know which events you are going to that are advertised on FB because you tell them “that you are interested”.

Do you know how many people check in every single time they work out?

People don’t use Google Maps when they know where they are going, but they will check in.

As far as adblockers blocking contents “in the DOM”, that doesn’t help if you’re using the FB app - one of the most popular apps in the store and most people aren’t going to install network based ad blockers.

Only geeks use Google’s DNS. Most people use whatever DNS the DHCP settings on thier router tell them. If you are using cellular data can you even change your DNS?


What's Google known for? Search.

This means people tell it exactly what they want. Who cares what your relationship status is when I can see you type in "wedding ring" into a search box? Who cares where you like to eat in the past when you searched for "chinese food" on maps, and potentially even clicked on an ad for a restaurant?

This is called "intent" and it's incredibly powerful because you can advertise for exactly what a person is actually looking for at that moment. Inference (like Facebook likes and profile details) will never be as good for real-time targeting.


Why users will stick to Google forever for those queries? they can search those on shopping/review apps.


Because Google has better results? What app has managed to take any serious amount of search queries from Google?


It’s not about taking general search from Google. It’s about picking off high value search.

Your random searches are not that valuable from a monetization standpoint. Searches that lead people to buy things are. Those searches are easy to pick off on a category by category basis. I had no idea that Google actually took up most of the screen on mobile with ads for products for sell until this thread. I’ve had Ad blocking on for just that long.


So easy that it still hasn't been done yet? What's everyone waiting for then with 10s of billions in profit available?

In fact it's the opposite happening with Google now pushing into searches for flights and hotels with far better UX, even though those verticals were dominated by other vendors.


Zillow, Amazon, Nolo, Priceline, Indeed, ZipRecruiter, LinkedIn, vsrious car sites, etc.


You are being naive here, the edge is data size, what made Amazon stuck out is they have shopping specific data, that's what matters, so too will those specific apps.


I've been in adtech for 10+ years so I'll take my experience and connections over your anonymous comments.

Nobody cares about some app that gets 0.001% of the usage and probably doesn't even have any strong identity link. "Shopping data" isn't magical nor is it of interest to every advertiser. Purchase data is also already processed by specific companies with their own properties or in aggregate by many ad networks. And, in case you missed my first comment, Google recently closed a deal to get purchase data directly from Mastercard which is far more than any single retailer could provide.

If you actually have an example of a specific app that is delivering much greater ad performance then perhaps you should share it.


Google organizes the world's information. Facebook organizes the world's delusions.


“which is not as accurate as people telling them about themselves.”

I’d argue Google’s data is 100x more accurate of who I am as a person than the data I provide FB. As a theoretical example, based on my search history, Google knows I have hemorrhoids, am paranoid about pancreatic cancer, looking for a SMS API provider, am a borderline gambler (because i check betting odds every day), and pondering the benefits of a divorce.

FB on the other hand has all the “shallow” information. It knows I like Game of Thrones, NBA basketball and paintball. It knows I like to eat ramen. It doesnt know all the other stuff because I dont tell my friends I have hemorrhoids. I dont tell my friends I might be getting a divorce.

Does FB know the needs/wants/fears of me as a person compared to google? I think not.



Facebook also has Messenger, which to my knowledge and from my experience is far more prominent than Google Hangouts for "private" digital communication. Presumably they mine those conversations for ads as well.


I'm not sure how important it is but I think it's also important to note that even if people are telling Facebook lots of things about themselves that there is no guarantee that info is 100% accurate.


Fair, but on the whole I'd be more willing to bet based on a willfull Facebook action than infer from an indirect Google Search action.

Data mining is incredibly insightful in aggregate, but my searching for "Cheetos" is a difficult path to (a) my being hungry for snacks, (b) my wanting to see the mascot, (c) seeing if they have a new flavor, etc. etc.


>>> Facebook knows where people like to eat because people check in.

Google knows where you eat because when you leave the restaurant it offers you to review it for google map.


Also, if you own Android, no need for Google maps. They are already tracking your mobile location. Scanning WiFi in the background. They know you are having dinner at some hotel because WiFi found its network while scanning. It doesn't matter if your WiFi is off.


You can switch background scanning off in Android. If Google respects that setting is another question altogether though.


Reviewing for Google map doesn’t give you the same social media cred of “look how exciting my life is and how great my relationship is!” that checking in on FB gives you. Besides it’s a lot more work.


The point was that google already knows where you ate. You don't have to tell it, it tells you.


They know the vicinty. If there are a lot of restaurants or other businesses, they don’t know exactly which business I was at. If I have an iPhone. They don’t even know that unless it was some place I needed directions to.


you'll be surprised at how many people use google maps on iphone. i would even be surprised if most ios users use google maps.


There is a huge difference. Google tracks location data on Android users all of the time. Google can only get location data on iOS users if they are actively using Google Maps. You don’t need a maps app if you know where you are going.


You also don’t have to sign in to Google Maps or connect it with “you” on iPhone. It’s sandboxed unless you opt in to allowing it to use your location all the time.


If people are checking in then they are also online, and if you're online then your location is available. This is not hard to do.


On iOS, your location isn’t available to Google though. iOS has three per app settings for location permissions for apps - never, while using, and always. Google can only get location data if you are actively using Google Maps.


You're stuck on Google Maps and checkins but that is not the only thing that people use, nor is GPS necessary. Anyone sitting down at a restaurant and using the internet on their device via any app or website will shed location details that Google and other networks can pickup.


How does Google pick up location data on an iOS device using Safari browsing Facebook? Can a site with Google analytics gather the logged in Google account name? The upcoming iOS 12 version of Safari is going to make it even harder to do browser fingerprinting.


Networks have locations. Cell towers, wifi hotspots, corporate routers, etc. Not hard to get a location as long as there is network traffic.

Google analytics does know the same user across sites and devices but this is of course not exposed to the site, it's used by Google for ad targeting.

Browser fingerprinting is not necessary because people log in (to apps and sites) and will never be possible to fully reduce unless Apple can somehow make identical computer chips down to the atom.

Apple's cookie war also only helps Facebook and Google who maintain active 1st party cookies with every user, and meanwhile hurts all the independent networks and publishers who have to get people to keep logging in. This is why it helps to actually have some adtech expertise and industry cooperation instead of creating silly browser rules and turning Safari into the new IE.


Networks have locations. Cell towers, wifi hotspots, corporate routers, etc. Not hard to get a location as long as there is network traffic.

How does that help unless they are sharing the data with Google?

Apple's cookie war also only helps Facebook and Google who maintain active 1st party cookies with every user, and meanwhile hurts all the independent networks and publishers who have to get people to keep logging in. This is why it helps to actually have some adtech expertise and industry cooperation instead of creating silly browser rules and turning Safari into the new IE.

If you haven’t noticed, Apple isn’t trying to help the adtech industry. Apple has a built in framework that allows third parties to submit ad blocking rules into Safari and (some) embedded webviews.

I didn’t know how bad Google’s search results were with most of the page taken over by shopping results on mobile until I started loading results with content blocking turned off to post on this topic.


Most of us are much more than we say.


google has your location they don't need you to checkin


Not if I’m on an iPhone. They know the vicinity I’m in but they don’t know exactly which store I’m at if it is an area with a lot of stores nor do they know that I’m with my friends. I probably added them to the check in and/or tagged them in a picture.


You do know that Apple only tries to stop things like this for everyone else than themselves, right? I wouldn't trust them any more than Google. At least you can use an android phone without Google apps if you want to. Good luck with using an iPhone without sending your data to Apple or trying to remove all Apple's stuff (step one: iOS).


Unless Apple is lying and third party research says they aren’t, they only store location data locally on the device and have an entire framework where they anonymize location data sent back for improving their service - differential privacy.

For the really paranoid, you can completely turn off most sharing with Apple, disable iCloud backups and backup to your PC with iTunes.


Google Fiber, Google Fi, these data hardly makes any sense, there are around x MM scale.

G-Suite sure isn't used for ads, otherwise the enterprise customers will be mad.

> Facebook and Amazon are nowhere close this level of exposure from hardware devices to internet protocols to the biggest websites around

FB might be, not for Amazon.

Hardware wise, Amazon has kindle (not so useful) Fire, and Alexa powered smart home devices.

Amazon own siganificant share of Internet through AWS.

Amazon owns big wesites as well.


An ad blocker also removes the ads from Google search though.


> Google offers the least precise targeting compared to Facebook and Amazon.

In my experience, Amazon has _incredibly poor_ targeting. Search and place an order for cat food, and the next day you'll get an email with:

> Based on your recent activity, we thought you might be interested in this.

>

> ... cat food, the exact same brand I bought already ...

Not only that, their targeting doesn't seem to be based on my past purchases nor my frequent purchases, but almost solely based on what I have searched for recently.

They don't seem to use the _massive_ amount of data they have on my purchase history _at all_.


Hey, at least cat food is something consumable and that your cat'll use up and you'll need to order more of.

Unlike say, consumer grade CPUs or specific video games.


I bought a TV on Amazon a while back, they knew I looked it up and they knew I paid money for it and they knew I received it and I even left a review so they knew I used it. I got ads to buy that same TV that they knew I already bought for months after I bought it.


The most predictable purchase for someone who has purchased one TV and reviewed it positively is the exact same TV for another room.

They are just following the money, it might not make sense to an individual, but product recommendations are optimised for sales based on historical data.


That's a really good point that I hadn't considered before: sometimes the ad that maximizes the expected return won't be the ad that is most accurately targeted. If an ad for a $10 HDMI cable for your new TV snags 10% of consumers, that's a well-targeted ad, but if 1/200 consumers will purchase another $500 TV if you remind them about it occasionally for the next six months, that's the ad it makes sense to run.


Unfortunately, that’s true. I bought three Roku TVs of different sizes in the course of year from Amazon. Actually four. I bought one for my dad.


That is true... I bought a flash drive on Amazon with the intention of buying more of the same flash drive if I liked the performance of the one I bought. And when I liked the first one, I bought four more.

A TV seems excessive though, but maybe that's just me. I mean it was a $700 TV, how much money does Amazon think I have to buy two of them?


Well, if you had bought the TCL Roku TV....2 /s



I'm guessing parent's comment was speaking more about potentials than current realities with regards to Amazon targeting.

The fact is, I assume Amazon really doesn't care about the ad business. They've offloaded that via affiliate links to third parties (a smart move).

Putting more effort into offering ad targeting now seems less about making money and more about draining value from Google and Facebook.


You're mixing things up, the affiliate business is a totally separate thing from the ads you see on amazon.com


They both fulfill the same purpose from Amazon's perspective: driving sales.

Amazon has always been driven by volume. Get enough of it, and no one else can survive.

From that perspective, selling ad impressions is... tangential. So they make "a few" (billion) on the side, it doesn't further their primary business.

Whereas Google or Facebook without ads would be... what?


Google and Mastercard Cut a Secret Ad Deal to Track Retail Sales https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-30/google-an...


I don't know. Google is still way ahead.

> Google’s U.S. ad revenue is expected to rise $5 billion this year to $39.9 billion, while Facebook could rise $3 billion this year to $21 billion, according to eMarketer.

Adwords is just so effective to find your customers. You won't beat `buy new headphones` type traffic on Amazon or Facebook.


If I’m looking for headphones, wouldn’t it be more logical to start on Amazon?

It’s not like Amazon is a site that people haven’t heard of. It’s the 4th most trafficked site in the US.


Personally, Amazon is where I go to check prices after I've decided what it is I'm buying. I've never gone to Amazon without knowing exactly what I wanted.


Your experience doesn’t jibe with market realities. Merchants play all sort of games to be the number one listed search result when you are searching for something generic like “headphones”.


Who actually searches for such a short tail term and expects good results? Does anyone ever google the term “cars” when they want to buy a car? More likely it’s a term like “8 seat SUV” or something more focused. Maybe headphones are different though..


And the first non advertising link is car.com where I can search for specific cars. Now Google has lost a customer and car.com has gained one. Now I can advertise on car.com and get a much better targeted advertising.


I never start a product search on Amazon unless I know the exact product I want. With headphones, I’d be likely to care about reviews in audiophile magazines long before I’d enter the noise of Amazon. I don’t generally use Amazon for product discovery, but except perhaps for paper books and I want related titles to something.


As long as your happy paying a premium in many cases for consistency. Certainly a lot of the marketplace stuff can be found outside of Amazon for cheaper as the merchant has an extra 15% to play with gong direct.


Most people are happy to pay a premium for the convenience - as evidenced by all of the third party merchants who sell on Amazon even though setting up a website to sell merchandise is trivial even for someone who knows nothing about websites.


I just searched for “buy new headphones” on Google with my ad blocker turned off.

It showed ads where I could get headphones from different web sites - where neither I nor most people have an account.

What’s more likely? That I am going to register for an account on “Under Armour” - the first site that appeared or that I’m going to go to Amazon where they already have all of my information,I’m an Amazon Prime customer and where I have one-click activated?

If Under Armour were smart they would have web based Apple Pay payments available to reduce friction.


I think the clear answer is it's not for you. Part of the reason behind selling through other channels is to capture people like you: you (and me for most things) would rather shop through Amazon than a retailer.

Retail vs. online is a prime example of channel selling. Some people prefer to try on things or are so brand loyal that they're blind to other retailers.


To speak to this from data:

3 out of 4 people searching "buy new headphones" will buy a product on amazon.com

On Google ads, you're lucky if one quarter of your clicks convert into anything.

Advertisers are choosing amazon because people on amazon are 1 click away from transacting. Google just can't compete there for eCommerce.

Now, on home services and virtually everything else Amazon falls short, but for direct to consumer eCommerce they win hands down.


Yup. Amazon also has the advantage of dark UI patterns; they put sponsored listings inline with normal product results in the exact same style. I'm the (probably atypical) sort of person who will deliberately not click on a sponsored listing even if it seems the most relevant, and I still regularly click sponsored items on Amazon by accident. I back out if I notice this, but I'm sure I've bought a few products this way. These seem like very effective ads to me.


Arguing that an incumbent business is impossible to disrupt in a large market seems like an odd thing to do on the forum of YC, an accelerator that pretty much specialises in supporting startups that disrupt large markets and topple incumbent businesses.

Not that Amazon is a startup exactly, but they certainly act like one a lot of the time.


There's something to be said for the expectation vs reality PR creep factor.

People searching on Google (or checking in on friends and family on Facebook) or browsing the Internet don't expect their history to be mined for advertisements.

People browsing on Amazon have already signaled their intent to shop.


And if Facebook is advertising tech related merchandise based on me putting that I am a developer in my profile, it’s a straight line from A to B that wouldn’t creep me out.


If we're talking about data I think Google wins. Email is the activity stream of all your online purchases. Google analytics has the users' clickstream data. Google messenger and google+ gets the relationships the user has. Youtube gets entertainment data. Search is what is relevant to the custom at the moment of time.

If I was Amazon, i'd look at buying mint from intuit to get all the banking data from users.


> Google messenger and google+ gets the relationships the user has.

Nobody uses google+.

> Search is what is relevant to the custom at the moment of time.

Yes, but in 5 years? Amazon is playing the long game.


Amazon stopped including full invoices in customer emails to prevent email providers from using them to reconstruct users' purchase histories.


Google doesn't read your email for ads anymore so that is moot for them.


Source?




For the 3 people on Google+?


Someone once told me that Google+ was built using a lock-free architecture, it took me years to get the joke.


You can replace "Google messenger and google+" with Android.


And with Android in Western countries, statistically you get much less affluent users....

I would think that a lot of communications on mobile would be going through third party chat apps.


> Besides, ad blockers don’t work with Facebook or Amazon embedded ads

Don't they? They seem to work pretty well for google embedded ads.


Exactly what I am saying. It’s much easier to block Google ads than Facebook or Amazon ads.

Facebook ads are seen on thier site and in their apps as is Amazon’s. Google is not a “destination site” aside from YouTube.


When I perform a google search for something with no adblocker on, 'sponsored results' show up -- google ads, on google's website. Adblockers hide these. How is this different from fb or amazon aads?


The majority of users are using FB on mobile and the FB app is one of the most popular. Ad Blockers that most people are using on mobile - either via the built in content blocking framework on iOS or by using another browser on Android, don’t work on FB.

FB uses “native ads” and “boosted content” that are indistinguishable from regular posts.


Even on desktop FB's ads are unblocked (or were when I used to have a FB account). They use a significant amount of obfuscation to make it impossible to use typical adblock techniques (url filter, css selectors, simple heuristics) without breaking the rest of the site. So far as I can tell most of the filter maintainers leave Facebook's native ads alone.


I read a while back about a research project to implement adblocking with computer vision. Wonder if that might be able to do it...


Google shows you ads based on what you type in so you are directly telling them what you're looking for at that moment. That's a pretty good position to be in as an advertiser. Some people will do what you do and go right to a specific search site, but others will start that process at Google.

Amazon can do the same, but the user is probably already looking to buy, although with less breadth of category coverage. Amazon is also more of a closed ecosystem, which is less flexible for advertisers but probably better for conversion.


> If I’m searching for something with the intention on buying it, I am going to go to the specific site - like Priceline, hotels.com, Zillow, etc.

And quite often that specific site will tell Google everything they know about you because it wants to advertise on the AdSense network.

For example, if you go to Singapore Airlines website and search for a flight to Thailand but do not buy it, then open the New York App to read the daily news, you will likely see an ad for Singapore Airlines - perhaps even showing a special deal on flights to Thailand.


I think the advertisers agree with you. This change is reflected in advertisers reducing the amount they are willing to pay Google for a click.


I look at it the other way. People keep comparing Amazon and Facebook to YouTube, But I don't understand why. YouTube is a single channel and is very different from others because they serve video ads.

Google (search) on the other hand, seems to be a much closer competitor to Amazon because lots of people search for products there and then use Google's product search to find the product they want from many different retailers. It's sort of Amazon vs. the field. Do you want to limit your search to Amazon and its platform or expand your search to every online retailer who doesn't sell on Amazon? I've found Google product search to be extremely useful in finding the right combination of trusted retailer and lowest price (including sales tax and shipping). Add to this a list of highly-ranked reviews or sites related to the product I'm searching for directly beneath the list of products, and I usually find Google a better shopping experience.


> Facebook knows more about its users because users tell it about themselves

I'd be surprised if Google doesn't know more about its users than Facebook. Google (theoretically) has access to its users' email, physical locations, browsing history, and more.

And search ads remain dominant for one time, high value purchases (think insurance or a mortgage).


And Facebook knows where I actually go based on check ins. My hobbies and interest, the movies I watched, etc. People tell Facebook what they are doing. Besides people don’t use email for personal communication as much as they use apps like Messenger and WhatsApp.

For high value purchases like a mortgage, wouldn’t better targeting be by advertising on a site like Zillow?


Google knows all that things too, without you having to expressly tell them.

Where have you been? You are constantly tracked if you have an android device. (not sure whether it also works for iOS with google maps on). No need to check in.

Hobbies and interest - search history.

The amount of granular information that Google could potentially have on an individual person is terrifying. The search history alone is effectively a peek into your stream of consciousness.


How does Google know my birthday, exactly how old I am, the events I said I was interested in, everytime I change jobs, my relationship status, the college I went to, where my wife and I went to see a show the other night, whether I am single, married, or somewhere in between? This is the kind of data that people tell FB about explicitly. Google only knows that have a vague interest in running. FB could have a better idea of when I go running because I might have posted about it or used one of the social apps that automatically post to FB.

Google can only “peek”, FB is having an active conversation.

Google doesn’t have the level of data for iOS devices on locations. iOS users in western countries are far more statistically valuable to advertisers than Android users.


I'll strictly speak about Google. (and assume that you are a regular internet user, who has gmail, and doens't go to great lengths to mask their activities)

If they wanted to be really invasive, they could get a lot. Not saying that they are doing it, but they can

1) Birthday - on every birthday, there are a bunch of random sites where you have an account that send you congratulations.

2) How old - beyond patterning (which can get you within a fairly narrow range), I am sure that most people have received or sent an email which states their date of birth - whether in the text, or as part of a form

3) Job changes - in any european country, you get your employment contract via both mail and email. (and btw...this means they have your salary too)

4) College you went to - if you already had gmail while at university, they have you. if you got it afterwards, they probably saw the "alumnus" emails

5) Relationship status - this is arguably trickier. There's no "hard" proof. I think FB has the edge here, though not as large as it used to be (I remember that 10 years ago everyone had their status on FB. now it's almost no one, but it's irrelevant, because they can look at your photos, and whether you mention "gf/bf/wife" etc.

6) Running - again, FB have the edge in determining how much/where etc. But google know you are running, because they have your emails from the apps to which you subscribed.


Might I ask what demographic group you are in? I personally am in the "founding generation of FB" (now a early 30s engineer in the US) and it's obvious to me that at least the people I know aren't giving data that much to FB. While plenty lurk or use messenger, quick sampling shows < 10% of my friends update more than once a month.

So to answer your questions:

> How does Google know my birthday

> exactly how old I am

I'll give you FB has exactness better specified, though I question how relevant it is. Regardless, gmail could easily figure this out by looking at inbound emails. Also linkedin public profiles.

> the events I said I was interested in

Given the lack of updates on FB, search is a much better proxy for this.

> everytime I change jobs

Email + linked in

> my relationship status

Search and email is going to be a very good proxy here, possibly better if FB updates are stale.

> where my wife and I went to see a show the other night

Maps. (And I'd guess usage of maps far outweighs people who voluntary tell FB)

> Google doesn’t have the level of data for iOS devices on locations. iOS users in western countries are far more statistically valuable to advertisers than Android users.

Yes, but number of Google-Android users, let alone users who use Google products, probably far outweighs frequent FB updaters.


Might I ask what demographic group you are in? I personally am in the "founding generation of FB" (now a early 30s engineer in the US) and it's obvious to me that at least the people I know aren't giving data that much to FB. While plenty lurk or use messenger, quick sampling shows < 10% of my friends update more than once a month.

We aren’t talking anecdotally about “people you know”. Facebook has more than 2 billion daily active users.

I'll give you FB has exactness better specified, though I question how relevant it is. Regardless, gmail could easily figure this out by looking at inbound emails. Also linkedin public profiles.

Google claims it doesn’t use email for targeting ads and how will it correlate LinkedIn profiles with Google users? I doubt that MS owned LinkedIn is going to share the data. LinkedIn only has 260 million active monthly users.

Given the lack of updates on FB, search is a much better proxy for this.

Lack of updated by your circle...not based on published numbers.

Search and email is going to be a very good proxy here, possibly better if FB updates are stale.

How many people use email in 2018 for personal communications?

Besides....

https://www.mnn.com/green-tech/computers/stories/how-faceboo...

Maps. (And I'd guess usage of maps far outweighs people who voluntary tell FB)

People only use maps when they don’t know where they are going. People will check in a lot more.


> We aren’t talking anecdotally about “people you know”.

Agreed, I'm raising anecdotes as I haven't seen any data users frequently update.

Quick search shows https://zephoria.com/top-15-valuable-facebook-statistics/. If you do the math, there's about 1.3 status updates/week/active-user. That's not a lot of voluntary data being given per user and I suspect this is subject to a huge power law where median is far less than 1.

> how will it correlate LinkedIn profiles with Google users?

Profiles are public and picked up by Google search. Correlation is pretty easy to do - simple method is real name match + geo-ip.

> How many people use email in 2018 for personal communications?

I don't have solid data; do you? That said, I and almost everyone I know uses email as the primary means for long-form (i.e. anything that requires more than a sentence) personal communication. (I feel like we're talking past each other due to the lack of data + being in different circles)

> People only use maps when they don’t know where they are going. People will check in a lot more.

Source on both pieces of data?

I'm skeptical as:

1. Maps is valuable for traffic-adjusted navigation.

2. Maps has 1B montly active users

3. Check-ins are rare. (looking at my feed - I can't find numbers)


Facebook has 1.2 Billion active daily users. https://www.statista.com/statistics/346167/facebook-global-d...

Even if they aren’t actively posting updates, they are liking, following, clicking on things.

Other staggering statistics are that 50% of all 18-24 year olds check Facebook when they first wake up....

https://zephoria.com/top-15-valuable-facebook-statistics/

And “email is for old people” has been a popular topic for over a decade.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2007/dec/06/digitalco...

How much personal email are people really doing in 2018 that’s not not either bulk email or business to business (meaning Google wouldn’t have visibility), etc?


> Even if they aren’t actively posting updates, they are liking, following, clicking on things.

Or logging on to third party sites that use FB login.


> This is my bear case for Google. Google offers the least precise targeting compared to Facebook and Amazon.

No way in hell. Google knows exactly what you are "searching" for. Sure Facebook is good at "guessing" but Google doesn't even need to guess. You just tell him what you are looking for.


Sure but if you have a SaaS product then Google seems like a better fit because you can target keywords instead of humans since you don't really know if there are any similar characteristics to your buyers.


Nahh then you just pay some analysts to make sure you are in second quadrant of “Gartber’s magic square” an advertise in a trade rag....


Google realized this a decade ago and knows that the search engine is becoming a relic of the past, that's why they tried to pivot to social networking/media so strongly.

I suspect they are still working on this pivot in various non google plus ways. Outside of android becoming a massive media platform I don't think much has worked. (Don't call it a media company we don't control the news we're just a platform la la la I can't hear you controls the news)


We tell google about the purchases on our site 3 times. For AdWords, GA and Trusted Store reviews. They the have plenty of data on what is likely to convert.


Facebook is dialing back the targeting you can use, it can take days to get your ad approved and I had an account for an insurance agency not be able to use the FB lead form capability because FB said it would be used by third parties. Fb might not be aligned to use their own strengths.


But what users tell facebook may be completely incorrect, and might be more a reflection of how they want others to see their profile, for example liking things which may make them seem cool. Google on the other hand, should know your deepest hidden desires.


Right, but consumer purchases are probably more likely to be based on how you want to portray yourself than what your real desires are.

A good chunk of consumer purchasing, especially high margin goods, are bought for signaling and not based on deep desires.


Facebook has terrible targeting. They might collect lots of data but they truly suck at utilizing it. It is pathetic. Google is fairly mediocre. Literally nothing in the quality of online advertising has changed since 1999.

Sidenote, adblockers work with Amazon and Facebook.


Facebook has better interest based targeting than anyone else on the web. Google is the king of intent based targeting.

Source: I've managed and tested $10 million+ of ad spend that needed provable ROI across a wide variety of platforms.


I'm curious about your experience here. In my experience Digital folks come with a lot of smoke and mirrors that crumble under standard statistical analysis.


I mean, you don't need too many stat techniques for basic tracking:

1) Set up Facebook pixel on your checkout thank you page + collect referral into into a database.

2) Spend $1,000

3) See how many purchases Facebook reports came from Facebook, check out how many sales you get recently have the Facebook referrer.

4) Repeat if sales revenue > $1,000.

This is obviously the simplest use case possible, but there you are. It's pretty reliable.


This is missing some testing. In multichannel environments you have the potential for multiple touches, as well as baseline if your company is large enough. For example, a traditional product like cars: you have a baseline of folks who come in, and then you have (ideally addtional/higher rate of) folks that come through the digital channel, such as engaging an online salesperson. Do the digital channels generate a higher rate of purchase than the baseline channel? If so, is the lift statistically significant? These are what I mean. Revenue moving through a digital pipeline could be because people happened to fall into that bucket but were already going to purchase anyway. In other words, some of the $1000 went to non-incremental marketing. The goal is to make sure the incremental marketing exceeds the spend.


I guess for (4) you mean, "repeat if [attributable] _profit_ increase [vs control] > $1,000"?

Not much point in driving $1,000 in _revenue_ with $1,000 in marketing spend unless your margins are 100%.


Thanks sib. That's exactly the point I was trying to drive home.


yes


Honestly in my experience they don't. The low quality ads is a major reason I have ramped down my Facebook usage. Google is sort of ok. The targeting on every platform is still 1999 quality. There literally has been zero change to the end user despite all the data collection. At the end of the day, it's low quality advertising.


Not if you are on Facebook or Amazon.

Most Facebook use is mobile and the Facebook app is one of the most popular.

Ad blocking works on Google’s website.


Google is better able to capture 'intent' IMHO.

It also makes it possible to find users who are at different specific stages of the buying process. That's way more powerful than what FB or Amazon offer.


If I want to target a demographic for top of the funnel advertising, I can target a lot better with a Facebook. If I want to target people who are buying now, why not go to the source - Amazon, Zillow, Priceline, EBay, etc.?


I don't know. Google has some pretty precise targeting of intent with search terms. But I agree that it doesn't have anywhere near the wealth of user data.


> Google offers the least precise targeting compared to Facebook and Amazon

If that's true why haven't Facebook or Amazon launched a competitive AdSense alternative?


Facebook has Audience Network, Amazon is starting to roll out their own ad network as well.


Amazon has affiliate links.


It could work well for B2C cases, but I suspect it will be only marginally better than Facebook for B2B. Still, that’s still a huge market.


> Besides, ad blockers don’t work with Facebook or Amazon embedded ads.

Could you explain further? Do you mean A/FB ads on A/FB, or A/FB ads on third party sites? As long as they're marked as ads they're removable.


> (I think Ad Blockers are off topic, they're still very niche for now)

Didn't google have to provide a big refund to advertisers just due to adnauseum use?


Ad blockers are used by 600m devices. 40% desktop 15%. Mobile (at least in the US) Happy to gather sources if you'd like, I searched this up a few days ago


What % of page views? I'd be surprised if it was more than 1%.


Yes I am referring to ads on Facebook/Amazon.




Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: