Google's announcement is also confusingly written, but I believe your interpretation to be mostly correct as best I can tell.
There's a lot of added complexity because of the <1M plan which isn't new, which put the cut at 15% for under 1M of revenue. Also if you participate in whatever these confusing programs are transactions from brand new installs of your app will be only 20% but transactions from existing installs (before the change) will be 25%...
I've seen this take in another GitHub thread, but are there any stats confirming this? As far as I know a lot of Github stats are publicly available, and can be queried via Clickhouse.
There may be other problems but as someone who's somehow ended up integrating Git into a service twice in my career without even trying that hard to find a reason (it turns out it's weirdly handy in quite a few situations, god I wish it were implemented as a library and not a pile of Perl and shit, and yes I know about libgit2) and has looked into some of Git's and Gitlab's posts about their architectures over the years though the lens of having fought a few of the same beasts, an Azure migration was very obviously going to make things worse.
Well that depends on how much traffic that cable was supporting, how much free capacity is available on other cables heading to the same area, how much additional latency the rerouting will add and how sensitive to latency the rerouted traffic is doesn't it?
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