Well the only ways to make any sort of insurance pool (whether it's run by the government or a private organization, for or non profit) more efficient is to deny more payouts or aggressively select for a less risky risk-pool. Medicare insures everyone over age 65, so the second option doesn't work. You can't just leave half the elderly uninsured because they're fat and likely to run up $100,000 in knee replacements. So you have to deny more claims.
Insurance is brutally simple. Money in, money out. Trying to make your back office more lean with tech and automation has extremely limited returns, because the back office is such a small portion of the total cost structure. 95-100% of costs in any given insurance operation are claims. So everything to do making things more efficient and reducing costs has to do with reducing claims.
It's not that simple. Something like a quarter of all healthcare procedures aren't justified on an evidence-based medicine basis and do nothing to improve patient outcomes. Higher quality care actually costs less. But there's a huge amount of waste and mismanagement at all levels of the system.
All the frontier models tell me when there are no issues. After implementing a feature I will ask it to identify issues in my implementation, list them, and support each item they identified with technical argumentation and reasoning as to why it's an issue.
If it doesn't find anything it says I didn't find anything.
I don’t think I’ve heard of a single tech CEO resigning for massively fucking up. They only “take responsibility” to the extent of saying those magic words.
He's actually agreeing it reduces the need for engineers to produce the same level of output as now. He's making the argument that companies would then desire more output to capitalize on additional ideas/projects. I could see it going either way, but likely demand will fall.
If it were 2018 I would personally have hired at least 3 devs at my company in the last 18 months. The only reason I haven't is due to the existence of LLMs. Not budget, not covid overhiring. Not soft demand. I literally do not need more engineer butts in seats. It is not longer a bottleneck.
The only way I can rationalize that so many people refuse to believe this is happening is that they are on the seller side and not the buyer side of engineering labor. This means they have blind sides to the buyers view of the market (some sort of information asymmetry), and secondly they exhibit cognitive dissonance to protect their self-esteem as a seller.
> The only way I can rationalize that so many people refuse to believe this is happening is that they are on the seller side and not the buyer side of engineering labor. This means they have blind sides to the buyers view of the market (some sort of information asymmetry), and secondly they exhibit cognitive dissonance to protect their self-esteem as a seller.
This is an interesting response when faced with concrete data that the buy-side of engineering is actively heating up in direct correlation with LLM adoption.
An alternative interpretation of your observation is that perhaps your company has particular traits that are helped more by LLMs than the average eng org. There's a growing SWE consensus that LLMs boost productivity by 10-20%. However, there are contributing factors that can make LLMs much more of a human replacement:
* Selling labour & services, rather than engineered software. ie an agency that builds customized versions of well-understood software, rather than net new capabilities.
* Selling software that has a low ceiling of complexity and a short half-life, such that LLMs can realistically architect & maintain it over its useful lifetime.
Tickets used to cost 4-8x what they cost now, depending on route. It wasn't a couple percent extra. A lot of what made flying seem like such a glamorous activity was that everyone but the upper classes was excluded.
An economy class round trip from the US to Japan in the 1970s with Pan-Am was $8,900 in 2026 dollars. About $15,000 if you flew first class.
And for comparison, today you can do an economy round-trip flight with Delta Air Lines for roughly $1.6k (SEA-HND). A Delta One flight is roughly $8.5k. That's the apples-to-apples comparison.
Deregulation also allowed international carriers to sell to us too. An ANA round-trip on economy class is a couple hundred dollars cheaper. Their business class is similarly cheaper than Delta One.
Air travel is so much cheaper than it was back then that it is affordable for most people to take one international trip a year if they really want to. Even to exotic places in Asia or Southern Europe.
Obviously their model is different to the big American carriers. Perhaps there’s something about the homogeneity of the US domestic market compared to the EU market that favors loyalty based airlines versus budget airlines.
The comments here seem to suggest that the loyalty program funded with credit card margins are to blame for the difference.
It suggests we'd be better of eliminating the absurdly high hidden taxes paid to the credit card companies, that in turn act to gamify the business. In the end they raise the cost of doing business, for virtually no benefit at all. It's a monopoly extracting as much wealth they can get away with.
The question at the heart of this: How can "the shining light on a hill" be so stupid? It's digging its own demise.
In the America, whoever has the most money is liable. It's not worth it for the legal industry otherwise. The lawyer earns his pay by convincing the court that whatever established precedent doesn't apply to his case.
I agree. A lot of people have an unspoken assumption that there are unlimited amounts of positive EV investments for any given company to make. This also underpins the extremely common idea that dividends and buybacks are always happening at a direct cost to growth and R&D.
Insurance is brutally simple. Money in, money out. Trying to make your back office more lean with tech and automation has extremely limited returns, because the back office is such a small portion of the total cost structure. 95-100% of costs in any given insurance operation are claims. So everything to do making things more efficient and reducing costs has to do with reducing claims.
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