It is the lament of every generation of humans to think that they are the pinnacle of everything that has come before, we are just at the start of the so-called AI era, many very smart people coming up still haven’t really got their hands on all of the material available from a hardware and software standpoint. We are still at the early stages.
I am very optimistic. I just wish I was younger to take advantage like Junior high, high school age with my current resources damn… The oldest lament in the books.
There are people and companies out there releasing entire vibe coded projects and for some upwards of 80% of the code they develop is AI-assisted/generated. Since around the end of 2025 and models like Opus 4.6, the SOTA has gotten good enough to work agentically on all sorts of dev tasks with pretty good degrees of success (harnesses and how you use them still matters, ofc).
> There are people and companies out there releasing entire vibe coded projects and for some upwards of 80% of the code they develop is AI-assisted/generated.
It feels its just around the corner. But when you turn 20th corner and its still behind the next one, maybe things are a bit different than they seem / clueless emotions make us believe.
Long term its bleak, but short/medium term - not so much, if I get fired it won't be llm replacing me but rather company politics, budget changes etc. Which was the only real (very real) risk for past 15 years too, consistently. But it helps to not work for US company.
5+ years in the software world is like 30 years in others...So...given lacking use-cases and humongous amounts of capital already wasted on chatbots...It's more like "we" are closer to closing curtains than to "just started"...
Discovery of the best solution in a problem space is not generative but only verificative. Meaning: the LLM can see if a solution is better than another, but it can't generate the best one from the start. If you trust it, you'll get sub-par solutions.
This is definitely an agent problem instead of an LLM problem. Anybody got something explorative like this working?
Land is expensive, water is scarce, people don’t want sound pollution anywhere near them.
Building a datacenter in the neighborhood is already unpopular enough that companies do tricks to prevent public from knowing what is being built and by whom in advance.
Sending a small box with a panel to space may be a solution if a: the inside of the box is expensive and the cost to launch is cheap.
You amortize the box over 2-5 years and burn it in the atmosphere afterwards.
If the math is mathing, multiply by a million and voila, you have a datacenter in space where each rack is flying separately.
With a regular compute it may not be profitable but with GPUs connected to each other by optical links? I think it may be possible.
In the Sahara there is plenty of space and plenty of solar. Any heat you can radiate away in space, you can radiate away on Earth. Or, more simply, dig into the ground and pump heat into the cool earth.
In theory it "should" be much easier to build on earth, but in some ways it's just different challenges. On earth you're forced to deal with those pesky government things and in the Sahara not a lot of them are exactly reliable or good-faith actors. Then there's night time. So out of the gate, you're dealing with needing massive power storage for the night time.
So you invest $5b into a solar farm and data center outside of Tunis and 5 years after you finish construction a popular uprising topples the government and now you're dealing with new management? Nah, nobody is going to do that. And who's going to work there? How are you going to get data out of there? You're going to end up using satellite comms anyway. It's not 1953 any more and (thankfully) nobody is in a position to "Operation Ajax" your popular uprising when that happens too. I mean, maybe, but yeah, I would not do it.
Even in relatively stable places like the US or the EU, let's say you bought some random parcel of land in the New Mexico or West Texas desert region. Or even in Southern Spain or something. Even if you get the land cheap, with relatively easy fiber access (doubtful, but whatever), you're still beholden to the communities there. You think they have spare water to cool your facility? How are the schools for the kids of the engineers working there? You think that people are going to be head-over heels in love with Amarillo or Extremadura? The land is cheap because people don't want to live in these places, so picky people are going to steer clear. And at the end of the day, you're still going to have to get everything permitted, approved, stamped 80 times, and the project will grind on for months.
No, space is an end run around dealing with bureaucracy and politics. It's space. There's basically nobody to tell you "no" up there. You can park the satellites in a sun synchronous halo that lives about on the terminator, and just pull in power constantly and radiate directly away from the sun in the other direction. It's going to be expensive, it's going to be technically challenging but we will do it. Also, think about the California high-speed rail stuff. If you try to build on earth you're going to be permitted and social-media'd to death anywhere on earth you decide to build one of these. For better or worse people hate Elon. I mean, I understand it, he's kind of insufferable and his dalliance with politics was a bit of a disaster (seriously, USAID cuts are killing people), but he's certainly no moron and I do not think he's entirely un-selfaware. He knows that people aren't going to let him build these wherever he wants. You're going to have to ask for permission thousands of times, there's going to be social media campaigns to stop him, literally any screw up (his fault or not) is going to be loudly shouted to everyone. If he decides he wants to expand his facility, that's more permits, more restrictions, more permissions.
So they'll go to the place where they do not need to ask anyone. Initially that was red states or at least relatively "non-hostile" states like where Tennessee, but even there people will squawk about it. I don't mean to say "squawk" to dismiss those folks, well, maybe I do, but I just think it's a bit silly in the context of us burning gazillions of gallons to bomb the Iranians. Nobody is going to do a damn thing about the climate or anything right now, and stopping data centers from getting built feels like stepping over dollars to pick up pennies, but I digress.
Anyway, space has none of those problems. Indeed, the problems are almost all technical. The technicians and engineers can live in California, or work remotely from anywhere really, and you won't have to deal with increasingly well funded and clever NIMBYs. The real challenge is going to be finding optimal launch sites for this stuff. Hilariously, my neck of the woods up here in Alaska is uniquely suited to launch into inclinations that would allow for constant sunlight. It's what, 98 degrees inclination for an SSO? So you can launch launch north out of Poker Flat and south out of Cape Chiniak. Though we don't have the infrastructure up here to support that out of Poker Flat yet. And nobody will squawk too loudly about it up here. I think those lunatics trying to slingshot satellites into space are trying to launch out of Adak too, so, hypothetically, that's an option as well other than the logistics of getting vehicles up here.
Anyway, this has turned into a bit of a book report, but these companies are not optimizing for cost savings right now, they're optimizing to avoid people telling them no.
>> No, space is an end run around dealing with bureaucracy and politics. It's space. There's basically nobody to tell you "no" up there.
>> So they'll go to the place where they do not need to ask anyone.
>> Anyway, space has none of those problems. Indeed, the problems are almost all technical.
This is pretty naive. What happens when one of the other sovereign nation destroys your space assets or holds them hostage. There is also no defense in space.
You think Grand Forks ND or Tempe Arizona is going to say, “we’re going to shoot down your datacenters?”
Of course not. The only people to stop you is like 6 nation states that have the capability to tell you no, you know? Maybe less? And most of them all need your launch capabilities?
Cmon. Who is going to tell them no? The US government? And jeopardize NRO satellite launch abilities or whatever? No, the Feds won’t stand in the way.
Destroying a satelite is much easier than launching one, even with existing systems. Worse, given rate of improvements, I think we're going to get ground-to-orbit anti-satelite lasers before 10% of this constellation gets launched.
And at least one of the nations with the existing military capacity to make a "no" stick is currently considering criminal charges against Musk personally, while another has a long history of assassination including of their own oligarchs.
Almost entirely depends on how much it costs to deal with the ground having night, and if this is more or less than the cost of putting it somewhere that doesn't have night.
Both are already things that can be done in principle, the question is just how expensive the solutions are.
For scale: if these million satellites were 25kW each, that's 25 GW total; Tesla supplies about 150 GWh of batteries each year between cars and PowerWall units, so provided they didn't need replacing more than every four years this would be enough to supply a data centre that size for 24 hours, so you'd just need to put this all somewhere without much cloud cover.
Solar capacity factor is 10-20%. So your state of the art chips are utilized 10-20%. That just makes no sense. Adding batteries help, but does not solve it entirely.
Definitely gives me second thoughts about getting one. They look like easiest way to get into 3d printing as a tool (rather than another hobby), but their recent attitude just makes me think I should suffer a bit less advanced product just to not have to deal with that shit.
There's some drama, and they did some wrong calls. But the hardware is still really fantastic (as a X1C owner). If you want to have some things printed and don't necessarily want fine tuning your printer as a hobby, I highly recommend it.
Same. I don't care about the online connectivity or whatever, I just print a few personal things every month so the convenience and reliability far outweigh any cons for me.
RE: 3D printer as a tool, I recommend Teaching Tech's video (1) as a guide to choosing the right 3D printer. His first question is "Will you use your 3D printer as a tool or a hobby?", followed by the priorities that flow from that choice, e.g. pretty looking prints, or accurate parts that fit together.
It is definitely a philosophy you have to buy into, in the same way that people accept the iPhone's walled garden. (I have several Bambu Lab printers and have been an iPhone user for 17 years)
Honestly I don't regret going with Bambu. Yes they suck in a way I get it. However the time and money I spent into my ender to keep it barely alive is all wasted compared to these machines that just run perfectly out of the package.
Sure prusa is fine too, and other brands might are getting there too. But if you want to print as a tool I would recommend to just use the tool nearly everyone is agreeing on.
I didn't regret it once, and have 3 printers at this point (2 of which free thanks to Bambu points)
Also I am still amazed that my $150 A1 mini is basically just as good as the X2D or P2S.
That comes with a big caveat. You can either choose to use the printer offline, or online, with no ability to use both. If you want the ability to monitor or pause a print when you're not home on the off chance something goes wrong, you HAVE to send every print through their cloud, there's no middle ground.
That's not Bambu being open, that's them doing the absolute minimum to allow people to say "you can use Bambu printers fully offline" in comment sections.
For most people, it is definitely a closed ecosystem, similar to the iPhone. But they do give people the escape hatch if they're willing to take ownership of the software they run. (To be fair, they only enabled this after a lot of backlash)
Willing to take ownership, and also forgo a lot of functionality that the device was billed as having when it was purchased. Defending Bambu here seems like the same mentality as supporting a manufacturer that implements a subscription model for heated seats in their cars. (Don't worry, we're an ethical manufacturer so we don't charge a premium for access to heated seats. As long as you have our app on your phone (requires location permissions) you'll be able to make use of them!)
A service is entirely different than a physical product. While I'm not necessarily on board with what Anthropic has been up to it's certainly more nuanced than a simple bait and switch as appears to have happened here.
Wait, that’s still just about their phone app. When you disable the cloud features, you lose the phone app, but otherwise the printer is fully usable. You can still connect to it through Bambu studio, you just have to roll your own networking (e.g. a VPN), right?
Yes and no, it seems. Yes in Developer Mode. With that configuration, which confusingly requires you to turn on LAN mode first, you can use your own software to control all features of the device.
In LAN mode it’s more complicated. LAN mode requires you to still use their slicer because the majority of functions beyond the extremely basic are still restricted by their authorization layer. This means using their SDK/network plugin for anything you develop, effectively coercing developers into their ecosystem for use-cases by the majority of users.
It seems pretty clear, in my opinion, that what they’re trying to communicate by using the “developer mode” language is that owning your device end-to-end is big, scary, and only for professionals. Oh, btw, developer mode leaves your device completely open and introduces various UX friction points to the experience related to constantly needing to rebind. Effectively it’s malicious compliance on their end. They’re giving the middle finger to anyone who wants to cut them out, and it’s hard to say anyone who feels that way is imagining it.
If you’ve got the spare time and spare change to set up and coddle a 3d printing hobby you absolutely have the skills and funds to set up Tailscale on a $100 mini pc.
There is a lot of overlap between people who have a NAS and those with a 3D printer.
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